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Lisa Goddard

Senior Research Scientist in the International Research Institute for Climate and Society; Director, International Research Institute for Climate and Society; Adjunct Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences
School: 
School of the Arts
Department: 
Earth and Environmental Sciences Department
Office: 
Monell 128
Email: 
goddard@iri.columbia.edu
Phone: 
845-680-4430
Biography

Lisa Goddard is the director of the IRI and an adjunct associate professor within the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences of Columbia University. She has been involved in El Niño and climate forecasting research and operations since the mid 1990s. She has extensive experience in forecasting methodology and has published papers on El Niño, seasonal climate forecasting and verification, and probabilistic climate change projections. Currently leading the IRI’s effort on near-term climate change, Goddard oversees research and product development aimed at providing climate information at the 10-20 year horizon and how that low frequency variability and change interacts with the probabilistic risks and benefits of seasonal-to-interannual variability. Most of Goddard’s research focuses on diagnosing and extracting meaningful information from climate models and available observations. She also developed and oversees a new national post-doctoral program, the Post-docs Applying Climate Expertise Program (PACE), which explicitly links recent climate PhDs with decision making institutions. In addition, she sits on five scientific advisory panels and co-chairs two working groups.

Goddard holds a PhD in atmospheric and oceanic sciences from Princeton University and a BA in physics from the University of California at Berkeley.

Goddard pursues several lines of research aimed at improving the quality and content of climate predictions. This goal is approached with a focus on climate diagnostics and predictability. Research areas include:

  • Near-term climate change,
  • El Niño/La Niña and their impact on climate variability and predictability,
  • Methodologies for identifying the relative importance of regional SSTs to regional climate variability,
  • Assessment of climate prediction tools, and
  • Strategies for advancing research, development and implementation of climate forecasts.

Goddard also contributes to the real time production of IRI’s ENSO outlook and seasonal climate forecasts.

Research & Other Works
Article
Analyzing climate variations at multiple timescales can guide Zika virus response measures
Article
From Science to Service
Dataset
IRI Seasonal Precipitation Forecast for Apr, May, Jun 1998
Technical report
The Latin American and Caribbean Climate Landscape for ZIKV Transmission
Article
Providing Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Information for Risk Management and Decision-making
Article
Needs Assessment for Climate Information on Decadal Timescales and Longer
Article
El Niño in the 1990s
Article
Importance of the Indian Ocean for simulating rainfall anomalies over eastern and southern Africa
Article
Predicting southern African summer rainfall using a combination of MOS and perfect prognosis
Article
Assessing the predictability of extreme rainfall seasons over southern Africa
Article
Practical implications of uncertainty in observed SSTs
Article
Predicting and Downscaling ENSO Impacts on Intraseasonal Precipitation Statistics in California: The 1997/98 Event
Article
Statistical–Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation
Article
El Niño: Catastrophe or Opportunity
Article
Reply
Article
Verification of the First 11 Years of IRI’s Seasonal Climate Forecasts
Article
Conditional Exceedance Probabilities
Article
Reply
Article
The IRI Seasonal Climate Prediction System and the 1997/98 El Niño Event
Article
Probabilistic Precipitation Anomalies Associated with ENSO
Article
Multimodel Ensembling in Seasonal Climate Forecasting at IRI
Article
Evaluation of the IRI's “Net Assessment” Seasonal Climate Forecasts: 1997–2001
Article
Improving Seasonal Prediction Practices Through Attribution of Climate Variability
Article
Decadal Prediction: Can It Be Skillful?
Article
Distinguishing the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenically Forced Decadal Climate Variability: Implications for Prediction
Article
Decadal Climate Predictability and Prediction: Where Are We?
Article
Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches
Article
Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts: A Review on the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Article
The Energetics of El Niño and La Niña
Article
Changes in the Spread of the Variability of the Seasonal Mean Atmospheric States Associated with ENSO
Article
Simulation Skills of the SST-Forced Global Climate Variability of the NCEP–MRF9 and the Scripps–MPI ECHAM3 Models
Article
Statistical Recalibration of GCM Forecasts over Southern Africa Using Model Output Statistics
Article
Differing Trends in the Tropical Surface Temperatures and Precipitation over Land and Oceans
Article
Three Putative Types of El Niño Revealed by Spatial Variability in Impact on Australian Wheat Yield
Article
Probabilistic Multimodel Regional Temperature Change Projections
Article
Diagnosis of Anomalous Winter Temperatures over the Eastern United States during the 2002/03 El Niño
Article
Predictive Skill of AGCM Seasonal Climate Forecasts Subject to Different SST Prediction Methodologies
Article
El Niño–Induced Tropical Droughts in Climate Change Projections
Article
Cross–Time Scale Interactions and Rainfall Extreme Events in Southeastern South America for the Austral Summer. Part I: Potential Predictors
Article
Dynamical Causes of the 2010/11 Texas–Northern Mexico Drought
Article
A climate generator for agricultural planning in southeastern South America
Article
Long-lead ENSO predictability from CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
Article
A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments
Article
Two Time Scales for The Price Of One (Almost)
Article
Improved Combination of Multiple Atmospheric GCM Ensembles for Seasonal Prediction
Report
A framework for the simulation of regional decadal variability for agricultural and other applications
Article
North Tropical Atlantic influence on western Amazon fire season variability
Technical report
A framework for the simulation of regional decadal variability for agricultural and other applications
Presentation
Climate of the Meningitis Belt
Technical report
Climate Variability and the Millennium Development Goal Hunger Target
Technical report
Sensitivity of Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Persisted SST Anomalies
Technical report
Seasonal Comparison of the Response of CCM3.6, ECHAM4.5 and COLA2.0 Atmospheric Models to Observed SSTs
Technical report
Current Approaches to Seasonal to Interannual Climate Predictions
 
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